Monday, July 16, 2018

YANNICK RUMPALA ''Hors des décombres du monde'' -- Ecologie, science-fiction et éthique du futur L’humanité doit-elle se préparer à vivre sur une planète de moins en moins habitable ? Comment adapter l’équipement intellectuel collectif pour éviter cette situation ? Et pourquoi pas en recourant à la science-fiction et à son potentiel imaginaire ? Dans la masse de récits et de représentations qu’elle offre, on peut trouver des ouvertures inspirantes, aidant à réfléchir, éthiquement et politiquement, sur les manières pour une collectivité de prendre en charge les défis écologiques. La science-fiction, au-delà du découragement ou du sursaut de conscience qu’elle est censée susciter, offre à la réflexion, en plus d’un réservoir imaginaire, un support de connaissance qui est susceptible de nous aider à habiter les mondes en préparation. Et à avancer vers une autre éthique du futur… Lire le sommaire Biographie Yannick Rumpala, maître de conférences (HDR) à l’Université de Nice, est membre de l’Equipe de Recherche sur les Mutations de l’Europe et de ses Sociétés (ERMES). Il appartient au comité scientifique de Res Futurae, revue d’études sur la science-fiction. Il a publié notamment Développement durable ou le gouvernement du changement total, Le Bord de l’eau (2010). Il est l’auteur de nombreux articles et a participé à plusieurs ouvrages collectifs. https://yannickrumpala.wordpress.com/

Ecologie, science-fiction et éthique du futur
L’humanité doit-elle se préparer à vivre sur une planète de moins en moins habitable ? Comment adapter l’équipement
intellectuel collectif pour éviter cette situation ? Et pourquoi pas en recourant à la science-fiction et à son potentiel imaginaire ?
Dans la masse de récits et de représentations qu’elle offre, on peut trouver des ouvertures inspirantes, aidant à réfléchir, éthiquement et politiquement, sur les manières pour une collectivité de prendre en charge les défis écologiques. La science-fiction, au-delà du découragement ou du sursaut de conscience qu’elle est censée susciter, offre à la réflexion, en plus d’un réservoir imaginaire, un support de connaissance qui est susceptible de nous aider à habiter les mondes en préparation. Et à avancer vers une autre éthique du futur…
Talk I'm really looking forward to @ the SE @geosociety mtg in a few weeks: https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2017SE/webprogram/Paper290946.html … Cli-fi novels as a strategy for teaching
Biographie
Yannick Rumpala, maître de conférences (HDR) à l’Université de Nice, est membre de l’Equipe de Recherche sur les Mutations de l’Europe et de ses Sociétés (ERMES). Il appartient au comité scientifique de Res Futurae, revue d’études sur la science-fiction.
Il a publié notamment Développement durable ou le gouvernement du changement total, Le Bord de l’eau (2010). Il est l’auteur de nombreux articles et a participé à plusieurs ouvrages collectifs.


Talk 

I'm really looking forward to @ the SE @geosociety 


mtg in a few weeks: 


https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2017SE/webprogram/Paper2909


46.html … 



Cli-fi novels as a strategy for teaching

If in fact Climate Change is behind the global heat wave, then Why won't the media say it?

If in fact Climate Change is behind the global heat wave, then Why won't the media say it?


[Dept of Media competence]

Climate change is behind the global heat wave. Why won't the media say it?

By LEAH C. STOKES
JUL 15, 2018

Climate change is behind the global heat wave. Why won't the media say it?

Last week's heat wave brought record temperatures to Southern California. Hot winds blew fire into my community in Santa Barbara County, ripping through a dozen homes and threatening hundreds more.
I tuned into the local news channel, where reporters reminded viewers that we had just finished a record-breaking fire season. They strained to list all the fires we'd had over the past decade. There were too many to recall.
Fires are happening a lot more often across California. You can't accurately call it a fire "season" anymore. The season is year-round.
But journalists who report on the fires or heat waves rarely acknowledge this reality. Last week, the local newscasters in my area never did, even though it has a very familiar name: climate change.
The same is true of the media at large. Although it reports on each fresh disaster - every fire, every hurricane, every flood - it tends to stop short of linking extreme weather events to global warming, as though the subject were the exclusive province of reporters on the climate beat.
The science is clear. Journalists need to start using it.
 
As a result, we're missing what is arguably the biggest story of all: The climate we knew is no more. We've already warmed the planet, whether we deny it or not.

It's not hard to spot global warming in the news. If you're looking, its marks are everywhere. Right now, southern Japan is flooded. Two months' worth of rain fell in five days, a day's worth in an hour. Mudslides followed. More than 200 are dead, more are missing, millions are displaced.
But to get the larger story about extreme weather events, you have to read between the headlines.
There is no sound justification for this. Not anymore. Scientists have been churning out evidence of human-caused climate change for more than a century. Some are figuring out exactly how much to blame global warming for any given weather event. They're getting really good at it.

We can now link many recent disasters and weather events to climate change. We know, for instance, that more than three-quarters of moderate heat waves are connected to warming. We also know that, were it not for climate change, fires in the West would have burned half as much land since the 1980s. Scientists have been documenting the increase in extreme rain events in Japan since the early 1990s.
There are reasons they haven't. Reporters are trained to distinguish weather from climate. They are also conditioned to avoid the appearance of political bias, and a decades-long campaign to sow doubt about global warming has cast a partisan aura on the facts.

But with a bit of nuance, journalists can carefully identify the pattern. Any weather event has multiple causes. More and more, climate change is one of them, and its share of blame is growing.

The public is not entirely in the dark. In fact, research by Peter D. Howe, a geographer at Utah State University, shows that 60% of people in 89 countries correctly perceive that temperatures where they live have warmed over time. According to a study by the political scientists Matto Mildenberger and Dustin Tingley, most Americans underestimate how many people share their belief that climate change is real. Most of us know this is not a drill, and most of us want our government to do more.

We all need to do more. Countries around the world need to go beyond the commitments made in Paris. We need more wind and solar energy. We need states to keep nuclear plants open when they are safe, because they already produce clean energy. We need to stop rolling back renewable energy laws, as my research has documented in Ohio, Texas and Arizona.

But we won't do any of this until we can see what's happening. Journalists play a critical role in helping the public to make these connections. They need to start telling the whole story.
Leah C. Stokes (@leahstokes) is an assistant professor of environmental politics at UC Santa Barbara.

Sunday, July 15, 2018

files translations #678

On Monday 3 December at 2.30 pm there will be a short snowy slope on the northern outskirts of London.
An accumulation of 5 cm of dry snow is expected. Attention therefore to road traffic. As early as 17
time will re-establish itself and the sun will return to the whole metropolis, with a rapid melting of the snowpack. There
maximum temperature will be + 5 ° C, the minimum of -2 ° C.
Here, it can suffice.
I disconnect from the Internet.
I wanted to let you know the detailed Monday forecasts for the city of London. I could have
choose any other European or world city. What's strange, you will ask me. There is that
this prediction is for Monday 3 December 2092. And we live only in 2089!
The secret Spaghetti group officially formed in 2085. A group of virtual friends, scattered around
all of Europe. We had met in fact on a weather forum, united by the same deep passion
for meteorology and climatology. A passion so profound as to make us make the decision that
he put us out of the law. But we had no other choice.
About 10 years have passed since the meteorological science has made the most discovery
important of all its not long history. As we all know, the climate system is non-linear;
some prefer to call it complex, others chaotic. It is, according to the theories elaborated in way
official by Edward Lorenz, back in 1979, of a concept that states that the troposphere is a
dynamic system extremely sensitive to initial conditions: very small variations are enough
data entering the numerical-forecasting models that should predict its evolution,
also due to minimal errors or only to negligible inaccuracies, to make it different also in
striking way the final result. This means that such a system is in itself unpredictable
even with the most powerful supercomputer: or rather, that the percentage of unpredictability increases away
away that one goes chronologically from the starting situation. At least this was what you did
he thought at the beginning of the 21st century. The weather forecasts at that time were very precise
for the first 3-5 days, then they became only tendential from 7 to 10 days, and finally we entered one
sort of vaticination over two weeks. But something happened that completely revolutionized the
meteorological science.
We were only boys, maybe very bright for their young age, who enjoyed playing the games
modeling releases on the Internet. We spent hours discussing it on the forum, arguing
passionately, to rejoice in the successes and to depress us for mistakes. As I said we were
of different nationalities. Jules was a Frenchman so expert in atmospheric physics as touchy,
Erik a Norwegian, a true Viking with a special predictive intuition. Then there were Carlos, lo
Spanish, sanguine and specialized in climate teleconference and Mark, German,
obsessed with order and passionate above all of historical climatology. And finally there was me,
Roberto, the Italian, the nowcasting expert, ie in real time analysis of the conditions
weather. We were just boys, and we lived for our forecast skirmishes, doing a
race to who would be the first to be able to guess between the folds of the models the most weather evolution
likely. What fell in love was the challenge, absolutely improbable, with nature, to try to
unveil its secrets by reading the signs that the troposphere sent us in the various races of the models.
But all this suddenly ended.
On June 14, 2079, Professor Hordo's team at the University of Reading gave an announcement
upsetting not only for the world of meteorology: the weather forecast would be from now on
forward results accurate up to two years apart with a margin of error of 0.1%, and up to
ten years with a margin of error of 5%! It was at the end of our dreams.


In fact, a new generation of satellites had been sending in orbit a few years ago
meteorological conditions, the Omnia. It was said that in a short time they would make the old man obsolete
data collection system of the World Meteorological Organization, the glorious WMO. Thank you
to sophisticated scanners and sensors, they could detect all kinds of weather information a
any level of the troposphere and the stratosphere. In other words temperature, pressure, humidity,
speed and direction of the winds were photographed and measured by the Omnia and then in real time
sent to data centers on Earth. And the fact was that they were as precise as they could
measure the exact temperature of your bedroom with more precision than yourself
latest generation thermometer! In short, a revolution! All the old system founded on
Meteorological stations, probe balloons, manual surveys were soon dismantled. The satellites
they sent practically in a continuous way all the data that a meteorologist had always only dreamed of
of having. Above all, data from areas that are difficult to monitor, such as the oceans, the deserts and the
large ice caps made the difference. Billions of data per second sent to large centers
world meteorological surveys, which perfectly photocopied the meteorological situation of the whole
terrestrial globe, to the most remote place of the Earth and above all to the last dispersed
molecule.
The cautious mistrust of the early times was soon swept away by the results. Shocking! The
weather forecasts began to result in exasperating accuracy for every place on Earth. Not
there were errors, not even the smallest. Even after weeks or months. After the first year
from the beginning of the experimentation it was certain that the word prediction could now be used
really according to its etymological meaning: a real anticipated vision of what
it would be the future weather of every place on Earth.
I remember the dismay that grew in us with every new success story of the Omnia system.
By now we met more and more rarely on the forum. It made no sense to interpret what
it no longer had to be interpreted: it was enough to read. Anyone was able to do it.
Something about me, of my deep self, seemed to slip away with my passion for the weather. IS
I felt that it also happened to my virtual friends. Knowing everything does not belong to nature
human.
We had never met before, I mean in person.
But when each of us got a laconic message from Erik inviting us to Bergen for one
last goodbye to our passion and our youth, we certainly could not refuse. They were orami
many months passed since the last discussions on the forum, but I immediately recognized my four companions
as soon as I entered the Norwegian pub. After the usual pleasantries, Erik looked at us excitedly and there
he said, "We can not let this happen!"
And so the Spaghetti clandestine group was officially born.
In a short time our attacks on the Omnia system became so effective that our reputation grew
exponentially. They even called us terrorists, and the big multinationals affiliated to the
Omnia group have been hunting us for years now. For now, in vain, fortunately.
After Erik's words it became clear to everyone that our purpose was to boycott the
system. Bring things back to how they were before, or at least prevent them from evolving into that
direction. Return to the joy of interpretation, leaving the security prison.
If the problem of the unpredictability of the complex weather-climate system had been solved by the
root, ie entering a huge mass of exact data in virtually real time, we had to
to recreate deterministic chaos no longer in the real system, but in the fictitious one. In the Omnia system,

in the great computerized monster that had killed our dream. Thanks to our skills
both in the weather-climate field and in the computer field, we managed to gain access, of course
in an illegal way, to the data that were incessantly sent to the supercomputers of the big centers
forecasters belonging to the Omnia group. And so began our work of perturbation.
Those of you more or less our age will certainly not have forgotten what the Ensemble were,
dubbed spaghetti by the lovers of meteophiles. It was one of the ways invented at the end
of the twentieth century to try to mitigate the problems related to the non-linearity of related equations
to the weather forecast. Practically inserting in the official data, which then arrived
especially from the Earth, used to initialize weather forecasting programs, small ones
variations, of the perturbations, it was possible to evaluate what was the most probable weather evolution. Yes
he was running a model for dozens of times, each of them

We do the same thing. But no longer with the aim of trying to improve performance
forecast; indeed, just for the exact opposite! We insert some perturbations, the wrong data, like this,
randomly, randomly, throughout the Omnia system. Of course, the results will be profound
edited. And with them the predictions, which will certainly not be more precise. The system fails to
to distinguish the real data from our fallacious ones, and so it elaborates the prediction starting from information of
wrong departure.
The joy that took hold of us when the first big forecast flop took place was enormous!
It was indeed a very important forecast, on the occasion of the 2088 World Championships.
It rained, it rained for almost two weeks, while the Omnia predictions had given good weather.
It did not take long to realize that someone had changed the data. But it was not so easy to find out
who had been. But our signature made us famous: the Spaghetti. And after a difficult start,
many people even started to find us nice.
For us, however, it was like being born again. The Omnia system no longer guaranteed predictive certainty. IS
then the weather forums, data interpreters, were reborn. In fact, only man could, analyzing one
series of cards, identify with experience and intuition what the scenario could have been
evolutionary more probable.
Now I can finally reconnect to the Internet and let you read the final part of the forecast
for Monday, December 3, the city of London.
This prediction made through the Omnia system can not be considered error free, given i
reiterated attacks by the Spaghetti terrorist group. Users are therefore invited to use the
traditional meteorological forecasting system, at least until the problem is solved.
And we know that this will not happen so soon, do not you think?

REDDIT ASKS "What are you cli-fi recs?

https://www.reddit.com/r/scifi/comments/8z7wbt/clifi_recommendations/


Cli-fi recommendations


Hi, as the title suggests, I’m looking for climate fiction recommendations for a research study. Happy to start anywhere!
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Climate Fiction heard that term before, Pretty much everything by Paolo Bacigalupi would fall into that category.
Kim Stanley Robinson’s newish book 2140 is about flooded NYC in the future, He also has a trilogy about a climate scientists in Washington DC I’ve never read
Tobias S Buckell has two novels Arctic rising and Hurricane fever about post melt Arctic and Caribbean.
Margret Atwood’s MaddAddam trilogy also has the backdrop of a slow environmental and societal collapse.
I’ve heard good things about Maja Lundes the history of bees, but have not read it myself.
Thanks a lot! I’m only familiar with Atwood’s work so looking forward to reading the others.

Wren Wallis ‏ and Laura Lidden on cli-fi and other genres....

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